Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 30.825568 33.181140 35.723783 38.689076 42.073938 45.843668 50.397061
2025-03-23 27.950268 31.277706 35.111478 39.922106 45.896844 53.216153 63.100981
2025-03-30 25.582889 29.322389 33.811667 39.723194 47.507399 57.735323 72.822093
2025-04-06 23.723516 27.670045 32.554100 39.226569 48.428992 61.242201 81.664334
2025-04-13 21.974006 25.953540 30.988606 38.058534 48.161106 62.890725 87.935657
2025-04-20 21.352218 25.592168 31.098688 39.090566 51.023925 69.484235 103.748021
2025-04-27 20.753625 25.194151 31.094981 39.917310 53.637251 76.105343 121.718694
2025-05-04 20.085701 24.643351 30.817510 40.286041 55.546033 81.867357 140.147077
2025-05-11 19.273716 23.837884 30.112341 39.926119 56.196267 85.477064 155.360284
2025-05-18 18.475363 23.002428 29.302176 39.320002 56.335212 88.120955 169.422368
2025-05-25 17.716593 22.181446 28.459161 38.584642 56.148785 90.069540 182.622423
2025-06-01 17.053167 21.462614 27.722805 37.956644 56.071463 92.216802 197.601440
2025-06-08 16.269582 20.556546 26.687290 36.811999 55.013520 92.270144 206.918482
2025-06-15 16.128185 20.569802 27.034231 37.978676 58.427165 103.112511 262.587445
2025-06-22 15.670354 20.096981 26.607269 37.795909 59.203196 107.979673 300.966256
2025-06-29 15.182821 19.558389 26.047911 37.337549 59.365091 111.359621 337.182405
2025-07-06 14.588045 18.837658 25.169350 36.258351 58.130712 110.800189 352.595740
2025-07-13 14.480731 18.839801 25.428094 37.211971 61.275731 123.153560 469.647021
2025-07-20 14.336225 18.777473 25.577022 37.975019 64.127655 135.826875 638.114324
2025-07-27 14.113652 18.585439 25.502996 38.315092 66.078455 146.522883 852.656027
2025-08-03 13.773750 18.199480 25.090919 37.983146 66.412973 151.899609 1044.310076
2025-08-10 13.409443 17.763766 24.577974 37.423808 66.136893 155.042749 1236.819901
2025-08-17 13.041402 17.311405 24.020167 36.744639 65.496789 156.681127 1430.765246